Today’s Picks

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NYHL Belmont Picks 9.21.14

Toby Callets Los Alamitos KeyPlays 9.21.14

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Today’s NY Hot List races to watch –SUNDAY  September 21, 2014 at Belmont Park
By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* – 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (8) Bella Fachi (a B last time) drops back down to level where she ran her best race and it came right here on the Belmont main track. (3) Path to Power adds blinkers and drops several notches off a career debut that speed-figure wise puts her at the top of this group and even mild improvement probably wins this race. (2) It’s Easy merits a look if only for fact that she goes out for 22 percent barn. (7) Golden Maria would be easy to overlook, but she may wake up on dirt and drops to an all-time low in cutting 20k off the claim tag.

2nd race – (4) Tizquick (C) ran second last time to a horse that took a similar stakes to this one in his next start.  Offers value here if you think he can make the significant second-time out improvement that many horses often do. (5) Bullheaded Boy chased classy winner in stakes try last tine and should be ready to fire for Pletcher here in third career start. (3) Market Conduct is likely to move forward off debut, maiden win for Chad Brown and the fact he is offspring of hot sire Super Saver. (2) Banana Thief (C) impressed in winning maiden turf sprint last time, but switches to dirt for this stakes try.  Talented, but that may be a lot to ask.

6th race – (1) Aesthetique (B) closed bravely from the 12 post as well as 5-wide position on the turn last time, but ran out of race track. Figures to like going a little longer and inside start will help as will a second try off a layoff. (9) All Mine Tonight just missed after a horrid trip last time running ahead of our top pick. Should appreciate the extra ground and will have more space to run in third time off the bench. (8) Nonnie Connie came out of the same race as our top two selections and was another that had a brutal trip in the 12-horse field.  (2) Letterfromamerica takes a big class drop here from overseas stakes company.

7th race – (7) Sierra Olivia (D) took money as Pletcher firster before running greenly in the mud.  We’ll toss that one and expect better second-time out for Todd with better track conditions. (8) Arctic Ocean (B) lagged behind in the mud before showing some late turn of foot and is eligible to improve while trying a fast track in MSW company. (3) Co switches to dirt for Shug and does own fastest speed fig in this group. (6) Back Stop merits consideration making career debut for Chad Brown.

Best bets: Bella Fachi (1st); Aesthetique (6thBest value: Tizquick (2nd)

No. Name Letter/
last race
Today’s Race Comments
(8) Bella Fachi B on 7/30 1 Has run her best under these conditions
(2) Banana Thief C on 9/1 2 Improves with every race; may prefer turf
(4) Tizquick C on 8/15 2 Ran second to stakes winner last time
(4) Sense of Peace D on 8/14 3 Big chance first off the Nevin claim
(8) Deadicated Deal C on 8/11 3 Like chances on drop to all-time low
(1) Aesthetique B on 8/24 6 Expect a sharp effort 2nd off the layoff
(7) Sierra Olivia D on 8/22 7 We’ll toss the debut in the mud
(8) Arctic Ocean B on 8/22 7 Tries MSW ranks off sharp late rally
(2) Birchwood Road B on 8/9 10 Don’t overlook in first time for a tag


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