Today’s Picks

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NYHL Saratoga Picks 7.28.14

HotList Mountaineer Picks 7.28.14

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Today’s NY Hot List races to watch — MONDAY July 28, 2014 at Saratoga

By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* – 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (10) Inventor’s Gate (B) has run well in two tries at the claiming level and stands to get a faster pace to close into here.  Problem might be getting good position from the wide post, and he also has to contend with several class droppers. (4) Classic Sense looks like the one to beat dropping back into a claimer where he has run faster than any of his rivals. (7) Are We Not Men drops in first time for a tag and it comes after big improvement in last two starts with the MSW crowd. (2) Point Hope is another one dropping in for a tag and shortening up a furlong-and-a-half is key to improvement here.

2nd race – (10) Good Luck Gus (A) is a main-track-only entrant and if the weather forecast holds he just may get a chance to run. If so he is one of only two horses that has races. Put in an excellent late rally to get the place in his debut, and we like him in this spot.  Odd behavior at the wire last time though as he seemed to hop over some tire marks on the track just before the finish line, so what if there are puddles today? (4) Banana Thief will get plenty of play going out for a barn in here that has success with first-time starters. (2) Jamaalaree is another firster that is training well for a barn that is a 20 percent proposition at first asking. (7) Amazing Anne appears to be the best of the rest.

4th race – (4) Captain Keon (A) was rank early last time before settling down to run a solid second.  Obviously wanted to go and connections will turn him loose here in a sprint. (11) Delta Warrior ran a nice one last time at this level and in a switch to the turf. (7) Spa City Treasure should compete dropping back into the claim ranks. (5) War of Honor goes out for excellent first-out barn.

7th race – (9) Apex (A) has been spectacular his last three starts and arguably against tougher horses. Makes just second start on turf, but may be trying to take advantage of likely rain as he becomes the favorite based on decent wet-track ability. (1) Charlie’s Picnic (C) is much better at the shorter distances and gets another chance today after closing 5-wide to win last time out. (7) Father Johns Pride has flashed speed and still adds blinkers for this one. Like our top choice he has taken some liking to a wet track. (5) Spartiatis offers a little value as his best-ever race came sprinting on the inner track.

Best bets: Captain Keon (4th); Apex (7th – MTO); Best value: Inventor’s Gate (1st)

No. Name Letter/
last race
Today’s Race Comments
(10) Inventor’s Gate B on 5/23 1 Slow pace hurts chances last time
(10) Good Luck Gus A on 7/3 2 MTO; The one to beat if he runs
(4) Captain Keon A on 5/29 4 Free to run early in a sprint
(1) Charlie’s Picnic C on 6/27 7 Prefers the sprints and can close
(9) Apex A on 7/4 7 May be entered here for main-track try
(2) I Want You to Know B on 7/11 9 Has actually run well in routes
(1) Means Well C on 6/22 6 Del Tries Alw field off maiden win


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