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NYHL Aqueduct Picks 4.18.14

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Today’s NY Hot List races to watch  – FRIDAY, April 18, 2014 at Aqueduct

By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A: A preferred horse to watch                        B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* – 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (3) Miss Da Point (A) has enjoyed the hot hand since December and we see little reason to bet against her here, especially off the most recent effort. (1) Carameaway ran just behind our top pick last time and stablemate (1a) Dreaming of Cara is also capable. (5) Clean Jean seems worth taking a shot with as Contessa acquires and brings her over from Finger Lakes with 13 wins under her belt.

3rd race – (7) Station Chief (A) enters off a stellar debut effort when sent off at 10-1 and looks like the one to beat in this field. (3) Tax Alex did improve second time out, but that was against cheaper claimers than in his debut. Still, cutting back 1/16th seems like a good move. (1) Bad to the Roan is eligible to improve as he returns to this level for second career try. (6) Dusk to Dawn is worth a look at making career debut for Hushion.

4th race – (8) Everydoghashisday (A) just missed last time and ran a close second after being bothered a bit and taken off stride briefly near the 1/8th pole.  There are a bevy of class droppers in this race, but this one did graduate from the N2L ranks at a 20k tag.  We’re willing to take a flyer especially since he gets in 10 pounds lighter than the top competitors and the apprentice rode him last time. (7) Ten Items Or Less (A) ran a strong second despite being unable to keep a straight line early and may be the one to beat in here assuming a less-adventurous trip. (3) Cactus City Road drops in class for 5th try vs. N3L rivals and cutting back to a sprint looks like a positive move. (5) Patriotic Duty looks like best of recent N2L winners especially with fast track expected.

8th race – (8) Wise Guide (C) is interesting here first off the claim for a barn that wins 30 percent in that situation with a huge ROI. Granted it is a small sample size, but this guy has run very well in unrestricted claimers and now moves into state-bred allowance company.  It’s a tougher condition, but he is one of only two multiple winners in this N1x race. We like the jockey upgrade to a rider that has brought home a few price horses for this trainer. (5) Piscesbymoonlight just missed last time and now goes third off a layoff. (10) Chrisandlorisposse has a big chance third off the layoff. (6) Awesome Heart is the other multiple winner in the field and last two solid efforts were races that weren’t restricted to New York breds.

Best bets: Miss Da Point (2nd); Station Chief (3rd); Best value: Everydoghashisday (4th); Wise Guide (8th)

No. Name Letter/
last race
Today’s Race Comment
(5) Againsome C on 2/28 1 Like chances in third career start
(3) Miss Da Point A on 3/31 2 Looks to be going best of this group
(7) Station Chief A on 4/5 3 Debut excellent; odds this time won’t be
(7) Ten Items Or Less A on 3/31 4 Bore out first 3/8ths last time
(8) Everydoghashisday A on 4/4 4 Just missed after stretch trouble last race
(5) Pillar of Strength B on 3/28 6 Drops a notch off two decent tries
(7) Giulio Cesari C on 3/30 6 Big chance after forward move last start
(5) Charity Reins C on 11/20 7 Long layoff since win with career-best fig
(10) Saturday Appeal A on 4/2 7 MTO; unlikely to start
(8) Wise Guide C on 3/27 8 Claim by this barn makes him interesting
(7) Tyrus B on 3/9 7 FL Travels west in search of victory

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Today’s NY Hot List races to watch  – SATURDAY, April 19, 2014 at Aqueduct
By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A: A preferred horse to watch                        B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* – 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race – (3) Let’s Discuss (a B last time) drops another notch in class and is eligible to improve racing on a fast surface. (1) Hearty Congrats looks like the horse to beat off a pair of solid efforts at Gulfstream. (5) Double Gold is a good bet to run better second off a freshening.

4th race – (1) Oghma (C) returns to the grass after a brutal trip last time when claimed by hot barn. (4) Trainingforsuccess finds a level on the turf where he should be a major player. (6) Astronomo is of unknown quality with just two career starts and that makes him worth a glance against rivals with plenty of failure on their ledgers. (10) Smokey Brown has been away nearly 6 months, but likes the turf and has room to improve.

5th race – (6) Superiority (C) took a nice step forward after dropping to this level last race and we like that he gets an extra 1/16th of a mile in real estate for this attempt.
(7) I Want You to Know (B) drops to an all-time low after running a solid second last start. (9) Star of New York has been a different horse since a 7-week freshening to start the year and should be ready to roll here in third start off that respite. (2) Meeker Avenue deserves a look cutting back a furlong after front-running win at this level. (3) Festive Spirit appears best of a bad remaining bunch of claimers.

7th race – (5) Leilani’s Ticket (B) needed that last race after a 4-month hiatus and ran very well to be second after a 7-wide move. Look for a forward move here on a track he really likes. (3) Bernardo has run fast enough against open company to be a major factor here and looks like a potential overlay. (8) N.F.’s Destiny has some fast races, but not since last June so taking him at a short price is a little dicey. (9) Isn’tlovejustgrand (A) steps up in class while in excellent form. (10) Quick Money looks dangerous in a wide-open field on the strength of two victories in four starts on the Aqueduct main.

Best bets: Oghma (4th); Superiority (5th); Best value: Let’s Discuss (3rd); Leilani’s Ticket (7th)

No. Name Letter/
last race
Today’s Race Comment
(2) From the Point D on 3/30 2 Drops down; may improve on fast track
(4) Giulio Cesari C on 3/30 2 Drops a couple notches, gets rider upgrade
(3) Let’s Discuss B on 3/30 3 Should get a dry strip with class relief
(1) Oghma C on 3/29 4 Stretch traffic hurt chances last race
(6) Superiority C on 4/5 5 Strong closer should appreciate extra 1/16th
(7) I Want You to Know B on 4/9 5 Tumbles in class after strong place last time
(6) Elroi D on 11/6 6 Flashed talent in winless 2013 campaign
(5) Leilani’s Ticket B on 3/8 7 Needed last race and is horse for this course
(9) Isn’tlovejustgrand A on 2/22 7 Water gets deeper, but recent form excellent
(12) Salisbury Knight C on 4/5 9 MTO; unlikely to start
(1a) Cat’s Claw B on 11/13 2 Kee Was improving steadily before layoff
(2) Frosty But Funky D on 3/17 7 FL Tries allowance company 2nd off bench
(4) His Freedom Reigns C on 11/28 3 Pen Travels to Pa. off lengthy respite

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